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Industry Insights: To EV or to Not EV

October 9, 2024

On Oct. 2, MichAuto investors learned more about the latest trends in the EV market during a virtual presentation with Adam Ragozzino, Principal Analyst of Batteries and e-Powertrains at Wards Intelligence.

The conversation began with Ragozzino posing the question of whether the EV market is slowing down, with the recent news cycle reporting that auto companies are pushing back their EV targets. According to Ragozzino, the market is not exactly slowing down, depending on where you look.

The growth rate is slowing, but sales are still climbing, as plug-in EVs will soon take over ICE vehicles in China and rule the European market by the end of next year.

Are Chinese companies really taking over the auto industry? It depends on where you look, but Ragozzino said Japanese and European automakers are still “head and shoulders above the pack.” Chinese OEMs are grabbing more percentage shares, but not necessarily at anyone’s expense. As for U.S. OEMs, they are rapidly losing shares.

“With all the worry about Chinese OEMS, the U.S. is losing shares without China really being an issue here,” said Ragozzino. The U.S. is really losing out to competitors in the region for a long time, like Europe, Japan, and South Korea … American brands aren’t losing to China per se in North America…they are just losing in general.”

The ICE market is a much more split field, with Detroit still dominating in ICE sales. In the U.S., ICE vehicles account for around 70% of the market share, with battery electric and full hybrid vehicles gaining shares steadily.

Who is winning when it comes to plug-in EVs? According to Ragozzino’s data, Chinese automakers are doing well globally, but it depends on the specific data you are looking at. Ragozzino noted worrying trends in the global market for legacy companies, as U.S. and European companies have lost their cachet with Chinese consumers.

The conservation ended with Ragozzino’s thoughts on the real threat to U.S. automakers, which could be themselves.

“I think the real story here and the real threat to U.S. automakers, Detroit especially, is that they really let themselves get uncompetitive just as the world was changing,” he said.

These thoughts align with the findings found in the most recent statewide voters poll released by the Detroit Regional Chamber in October 2024, which shows significant contrasts and causes for concern for anyone who cares about the future of automotive and mobility in Michigan.

The audience was left with soundbites from a CNBC interview with Stellantis Chief Executive Officer Carlos Tavares, who sees the auto industry undergoing a “major consolidation in the next five to ten years, with possibly only five global automakers.”